4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 2 at the 55

Green Bay Packers 21 – Chicago Bears 6

What Actually Happened

(8:39) 19-D.Whelan punts 37 yards to CHI 18, Center-42-M.Orzech, downed by GB-37-J.Baldwin.

The Three Options

GO +0.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.57 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 55, worth -3.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 16, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.31 EP