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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 20 at the 70

Green Bay Packers 21 – Chicago Bears 9

What Actually Happened

(12:52) 19-D.Whelan punts 58 yards to CHI 12, Center-42-M.Orzech. 12-D.Duvernay pushed ob at CHI 34 for 22 yards (42-M.Orzech).

The Three Options

GO -2.08 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.64 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 70, worth -3.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 28, worth -1.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model