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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 15 at the 26

Green Bay Packers 27 – Chicago Bears 24

What Actually Happened

(2:56) 17-B.McManus 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO +0.48 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.41 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26, worth -0.96 EP
KICK +1.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 36, worth -1.30 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model