Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 7 at the 69

Green Bay Packers 27 – Chicago Bears 31

(1:05) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 0-M.Golden pushed ob at GB 44 for 13 yards (6-K.Gordon).

The Three Options

GO -0.77 EP

What Happened

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.01 EP
56% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 69, worth -2.15 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model