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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 2 at the 62

Chicago Bears 3 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short middle to 2-D.Moore to GB 44 for 18 yards (33-E.Williams).

The Three Options

GO +0.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.31 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 62, worth -3.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 21, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model