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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 40

Chicago Bears 3 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(12:30) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep left intended for 10-L.Burden INTERCEPTED by 24-C.Valentine at GB 12. 24-C.Valentine to GB 13 for 1 yard (10-L.Burden).

The Three Options

GO +0.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.78 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.88 EP
KICK -0.06 EP
  • 57% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.61 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model