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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 13

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(4:04) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 16-A.Thielen to HOU 9 for 4 yards (2-C.Bullock).

The Three Options

GO +2.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.07 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 13, worth +0.01 EP
KICK +1.89 EP
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 23, worth -0.47 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model