4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
HOU Away

Houston Texans

HC DeMeco Ryans
@
PIT Home

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
Monday 2026-01-12 · 20:00 Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh US 🥶 Cold Spread -3.0 O/U 38.5

Win Probability

HOU
41.6%
PIT
58.4%
🥶 Cold

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • C.J. Stroud (HOU): +0.145 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • HOU defense: -0.085 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • PIT offense: +0.025 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

HOU 22
–
PIT 24
Projected margin: PIT by 2 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 19

HOU

Jawhar Jordan RB Out Ankle
Ajani Carter CB Out Hamstring
Davis Mills QB Questionable Not injury related - personal matter
Jaylen Reed S Questionable Forearm

PIT

Isaiahh Loudermilk DT Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 19 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

HOU 30
–
PIT 6

Prediction missed by 26 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:06 FG PIT (6:06) 9-C.Boswell 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman. HOU 0 – PIT 3
  • Q2 08:34 TD HOU (8:34) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 13-C.Kirk for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 6 – PIT 3
  • Q2 02:00 FG PIT (2:00) 9-C.Boswell 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman. HOU 7 – PIT 6
  • Q4 13:12 FG HOU (13:12) 15-K.Fairbairn 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend. HOU 10 – PIT 6
  • Q4 11:34 TD HOU (11:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers sacked at PIT 33 for -10 yards (sack split by 51-W.Anderson and 90-S.Rankins). FUMBLES (51-W.Anderson) [51-W.Anderson], RECOVERED by HOU-90-S.Rankins at PIT 33. 90-S.Rankins for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 16 – PIT 6
  • Q4 03:43 TD HOU (3:43) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 27-W.Marks right tackle for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 23 – PIT 6
  • Q4 02:52 TD HOU (2:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep right intended for 88-P.Freiermuth INTERCEPTED by 2-C.Bullock at 50. 2-C.Bullock for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 30 – PIT 6

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 7 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 29%

    (12:04) 3-C.Waitman punts 40 yards to HOU 10, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 14-J.Noel.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 11 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 29%

    (9:01) 6-T.Townsend punts 22 yards to PIT 28, Center-40-A.Brinkman, out of bounds.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 3 at the 14
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 95%

    (6:06) 9-C.Boswell 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 5 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 27%

    (:37) 3-C.Waitman punts 44 yards to HOU 7, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 14-J.Noel pushed ob at HOU 8 for 1 yard (41-P.Wilson).

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 10 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (7:10) 3-C.Waitman punts 43 yards to HOU 19, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-55-C.Holcomb.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 2 at the 13
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 96%

    (4:04) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 16-A.Thielen to HOU 9 for 4 yards (2-C.Bullock).

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 17 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 94%

    (2:00) 9-C.Boswell 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 6 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 27%

    (:13) 6-T.Townsend punts 43 yards to PIT 8, Center-40-A.Brinkman, downed by HOU-42-J.Ingram.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 12 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (5:45) 3-C.Waitman punts 55 yards to HOU 18, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 14-J.Noel to HOU 30 for 12 yards (41-P.Wilson; 40-J.Peppers).

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 10 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (3:54) 6-T.Townsend punts 60 yards to PIT 10, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 19-C.Austin to PIT 24 for 14 yards (40-A.Brinkman).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 6 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 75%

    (13:12) 15-K.Fairbairn 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 13 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 34%

    (9:36) 3-C.Waitman punts 35 yards to HOU 13, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 14-J.Noel.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 5 at the 66 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (2:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep right intended for 88-P.Freiermuth INTERCEPTED by 2-C.Bullock at 50. 2-C.Bullock for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 2 at the 57 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60%

    (1:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass short left to 19-C.Austin to PIT 45 for 2 yards (11-T.Smith).