Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 12 at the 73

Pittsburgh Steelers 6 – Houston Texans 7

(5:45) 3-C.Waitman punts 55 yards to HOU 18, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 14-J.Noel to HOU 30 for 12 yards (41-P.Wilson; 40-J.Peppers).

The Three Options

GO -2.15 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.08 EP
67% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 73, worth -4.23 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model