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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 70

Houston Texans 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 6

What Actually Happened

(3:54) 6-T.Townsend punts 60 yards to PIT 10, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 19-C.Austin to PIT 24 for 14 yards (40-A.Brinkman).

The Three Options

GO -1.88 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.94 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 70, worth -3.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 28, worth -1.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model