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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 32

Houston Texans 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 6

What Actually Happened

(13:12) 15-K.Fairbairn 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +0.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.24 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.53 EP
KICK +0.59 EP
What Happened
  • 75% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 42, worth -2.21 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model