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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 13 at the 48

Pittsburgh Steelers 6 – Houston Texans 17

What Actually Happened

(9:36) 3-C.Waitman punts 35 yards to HOU 13, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 14-J.Noel.

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.60 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 48, worth -2.58 EP
KICK -1.19 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.64 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model