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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 11 at the 50

Houston Texans 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:01) 6-T.Townsend punts 22 yards to PIT 28, Center-40-A.Brinkman, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.15 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +2.99 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 50, worth -3.07 EP
KICK -1.85 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.10 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.07 EP
PUNT -0.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model