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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 57

Pittsburgh Steelers 6 – Houston Texans 30

What Actually Happened

(1:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass short left to 19-C.Austin to PIT 45 for 2 yards (11-T.Smith).

The Three Options

GO -0.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.06 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 57, worth -1.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 17, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model