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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 14

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(6:06) 9-C.Boswell 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +2.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.22 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 14, worth +0.70 EP
KICK +2.41 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.53 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 24, worth -0.06 EP
PUNT +0.86 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP