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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 3

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – New England Patriots 3

What Actually Happened

(6:55) 11-C.Dicker 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +3.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.37 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 3, worth -0.06 EP
KICK +1.25 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.28 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 21, worth -1.16 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.97 EP