4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
LAC Away

Los Angeles Chargers

HC Jim Harbaugh
@
NE Home

New England Patriots

HC Mike Vrabel
Sunday 2026-01-11 · 20:00 Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US 🌧 Rain Spread 3.5 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

LAC
19.4%
NE
80.6%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NE offense: +0.229 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • LAC offense: -0.106 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • Drake Maye (NE): +0.327 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • NE defense: -0.073 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • LAC defense: -0.127 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

LAC 18
–
NE 27
Projected margin: NE by 9 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 19

LAC

Kendall Williamson S Out Ankle
KeAndre Lambert-Smith WR Out Hamstring
Bud Dupree DE Questionable Hamstring
Del'Shawn Phillips LB Questionable Hamstring
Elijah Molden S Questionable Hamstring
Austin Deculus T Questionable Oblique
Tucker Fisk TE Questionable Ankle
Omarion Hampton RB Questionable Ankle

NE

Khyiris Tonga DT Out Foot
Alex Austin CB Out Wrist
Harold Landry III LB Questionable Knee
Thayer Munford Jr. T Questionable Knee
Kayshon Boutte WR Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 19 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LAC 3
–
NE 16

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 26 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 13:34 FG NE (13:34) 36-A.Borregales 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer. LAC 0 – NE 3
  • Q2 06:55 FG LAC (6:55) 11-C.Dicker 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. LAC 3 – NE 3
  • Q2 00:06 FG NE (:06) 36-A.Borregales 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer. LAC 3 – NE 6
  • Q3 01:38 FG NE (1:38) 36-A.Borregales 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer. LAC 3 – NE 9
  • Q4 09:52 TD NE (9:52) 74-T.Munford reported in as eligible. 10-D.Maye pass deep left to 85-H.Henry for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 3 – NE 15

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NE 4th & 9 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (12:30) 17-B.Baringer punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Ashby, Touchback.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 7 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 24%

    (8:18) 16-J.Scott punts 44 yards to NE 8, Center-47-J.Harris. 25-M.Jones to NE 8 for no gain (33-D.Leonard).

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 99%

    (5:17) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 13-K.Allen.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 4 at the 30
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 78%

    (1:41) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 18-K.Williams ran ob at LAC 23 for 7 yards.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 4 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.30 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 98%

    (13:34) 36-A.Borregales 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 2 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.97 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 99%

    (6:55) 11-C.Dicker 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 6 at the 45
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 41%

    (3:32) 17-B.Baringer punts 37 yards to LAC 8, Center-47-J.Ashby, downed by NE-48-J.Tavai.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 15 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (:41) 16-J.Scott punts 33 yards to NE 44, Center-47-J.Harris. 25-M.Jones to NE 46 for 2 yards (9-T.Harris).

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 7 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (13:22) 16-J.Scott punts 46 yards to NE 19, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 4 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 31%

    (5:18) 16-J.Scott punts 34 yards to NE 15, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 4 at the 21
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 90%

    (1:38) 36-A.Borregales 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 7 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (14:10) 16-J.Scott punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Harris, Touchback.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 15 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 28%

    (5:45) 17-B.Baringer punts 38 yards to LAC 12, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 9 at the 75 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.07 EP
    p(convert) 35%

    (4:10) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 86-O.Gadsden pushed ob at LAC 35 for 10 yards (22-C.Woods).

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 9 at the 34 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.78 EP
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 70%

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert sacked at NE 43 for -9 yards (97-M.Williams).