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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 45

New England Patriots 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

What Actually Happened

(3:32) 17-B.Baringer punts 37 yards to LAC 8, Center-47-J.Ashby, downed by NE-48-J.Tavai.

The Three Options

GO +0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.51 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.04 EP
KICK -0.83 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.52 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP