Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 15 at the 77

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – New England Patriots 3

(:41) 16-J.Scott punts 33 yards to NE 44, Center-47-J.Harris. 25-M.Jones to NE 46 for 2 yards (9-T.Harris).

The Three Options

GO -2.67 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.32 EP
72% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 77, worth -4.24 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model