Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 7 at the 65

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – New England Patriots 6

(13:22) 16-J.Scott punts 46 yards to NE 19, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.51 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.23 EP
62% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 65, worth -3.82 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model