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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 21

New England Patriots 6 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

What Actually Happened

(1:38) 36-A.Borregales 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

The Three Options

GO +2.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.93 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
What Happened
  • 90% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.29 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP