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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 30

New England Patriots 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(1:41) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 18-K.Williams ran ob at LAC 23 for 7 yards.

The Three Options

GO +1.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.48 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.05 EP
KICK +1.10 EP
  • 78% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.78 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model