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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 5

New England Patriots 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:34) 36-A.Borregales 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

The Three Options

GO +3.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.44 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 5, worth +0.36 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.55 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.30 EP