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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 57

Philadelphia Eagles 6 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(11:24) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to PHI 46 for 3 yards (95-A.Collins).

The Three Options

GO +1.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.58 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 57, worth -2.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.75 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model