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SF Away

San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
@
PHI Home

Philadelphia Eagles

HC Nick Sirianni
Sunday 2026-01-11 · 16:30 Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia US 🌧 Rain Spread 6.0 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

SF
45.6%
PHI
54.4%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SF offense: +0.133 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • PHI defense: -0.143 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • Wind 22 mph
  • SF defense: +0.062 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • QB edge to SF: Jalen Hurts (PHI) +0.105 vs Brock Purdy (SF) +0.175 EPA/dropback (PHI starting Jalen Hurts in place of Tanner McKee)

Predicted Final Score

SF 21
–
PHI 22
Projected margin: PHI by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 19

SF

Trent Williams T Questionable Hamstring
Luke Gifford LB Questionable Quadricep
Dee Winters LB Questionable Ankle
Keion White DE Questionable Groin
Renardo Green CB Questionable Ankle
Jacob Cowing WR Questionable Hamstring
Ricky Pearsall WR Questionable Knee

PHI

Lane Johnson T Questionable Foot
Brett Toth G Questionable Concussion
Azeez Ojulari LB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 19 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SF 23
–
PHI 19

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:54 TD SF (11:54) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 5-D.Robinson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 6 – PHI 0
  • Q1 06:20 TD PHI (6:20) (No Huddle) 88-D.Goedert left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SF 7 – PHI 6
  • Q2 06:13 TD PHI (6:13) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 88-D.Goedert for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 7 – PHI 12
  • Q2 02:54 FG SF (2:54) 18-E.Pineiro 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead. SF 10 – PHI 13
  • Q3 02:15 FG PHI (2:15) 4-J.Elliott 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-10-B.Mann. SF 10 – PHI 16
  • Q4 15:00 TD SF (15:00) 15-J.Jennings pass deep right to 23-C.McCaffrey for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on PHI-98-J.Carter, Roughing the Passer, 8 yards, enforced between downs. SF 16 – PHI 16
  • Q4 08:04 FG PHI (8:04) 4-J.Elliott 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-10-B.Mann. SF 17 – PHI 19
  • Q4 02:59 TD SF (2:59) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 23-C.McCaffrey for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 23 – PHI 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SF 4th & 3 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (5:08) 7-T.Morstead punts 35 yards to PHI 32, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 2 at the 48
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 24%

    (1:33) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short left to 6-D.Smith (20-U.Stout).

  • Q1 SF 4th & 7 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 22%

    (:18) 7-T.Morstead punts 43 yards to PHI 6, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by SF-36-M.Sigle.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 1 at the 57
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (11:24) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to PHI 46 for 3 yards (95-A.Collins).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 2 at the 9
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 97%

    (6:13) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 88-D.Goedert for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 2 at the 18
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.09 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 92%

    (2:54) 18-E.Pineiro 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 9 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (2:02) 10-B.Mann punts 43 yards to SF 21, impetus ends at SF 17, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 9-S.Moore to SF 23 for 2 yards (42-S.Mondon).

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 3 at the 63
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (13:37) 10-B.Mann punts 58 yards to SF 5, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 9-S.Moore.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 14 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (8:25) 10-B.Mann punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Touchback.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 9 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (7:32) 7-T.Morstead punts 25 yards to SF 46, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by SF-41-J.Graham.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 9 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 86%

    (2:15) 4-J.Elliott 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-10-B.Mann.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 13 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (13:25) 10-B.Mann punts 46 yards to SF 22, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 9-S.Moore MUFFS catch, and recovers at SF 21. 9-S.Moore to SF 31 for 10 yards (54-J.Trotter).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 4 at the 15
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 94%

    (8:04) 4-J.Elliott 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-10-B.Mann.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 5 at the 60 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (2:21) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 88-D.Goedert to SF 45 for 15 yards (6-M.Mustapha).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 11 at the 21 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.16 EP
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 88%

    (:43) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short middle to 88-D.Goedert (43-E.Kendricks).