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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 2 at the 9

Philadelphia Eagles 6 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(6:13) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 88-D.Goedert for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.49 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 9, worth +0.13 EP
KICK +1.84 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.55 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model