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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 2 at the 18

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 13

What Actually Happened

(2:54) 18-E.Pineiro 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +2.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.50 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 18, worth -0.88 EP
KICK +1.08 EP
What Happened
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.31 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 28, worth -1.54 EP
PUNT -0.72 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.09 EP