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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 9 at the 79

San Francisco 49ers 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 13

What Actually Happened

(7:32) 7-T.Morstead punts 25 yards to SF 46, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by SF-41-J.Graham.

The Three Options

GO -2.52 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.83 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 79, worth -4.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -2.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 36, worth -2.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model