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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 9 at the 23

Philadelphia Eagles 13 – San Francisco 49ers 10

What Actually Happened

(2:15) 4-J.Elliott 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-10-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +1.38 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.11 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 23, worth -0.40 EP
KICK +1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT +0.45 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model