Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 13 at the 68

Philadelphia Eagles 16 – San Francisco 49ers 17

What Actually Happened

(13:25) 10-B.Mann punts 46 yards to SF 22, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 9-S.Moore MUFFS catch, and recovers at SF 21. 9-S.Moore to SF 31 for 10 yards (54-J.Trotter).

The Three Options

GO -1.64 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.39 EP
68% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 68, worth -3.54 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model