4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 15

Philadelphia Eagles 16 – San Francisco 49ers 17

What Actually Happened

(8:04) 4-J.Elliott 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-10-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +2.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.00 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 15, worth -0.33 EP
KICK +1.68 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25, worth -0.96 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP