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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 3 at the 67

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 6

What Actually Happened

(5:08) 7-T.Morstead punts 35 yards to PHI 32, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.57 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 67, worth -3.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.33 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 25, worth -1.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP