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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 2 at the 48

Philadelphia Eagles 6 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(1:33) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short left to 6-D.Smith (20-U.Stout).

The Three Options

GO +0.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.15 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.47 EP
KICK -1.48 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model