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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 9 at the 14

Buffalo Bills 7 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(2:17) 15-M.Prater 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +1.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.62 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 14, worth -0.52 EP
KICK +1.33 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.44 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24, worth -1.17 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model