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Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
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Denver Broncos

HC Sean Payton
Saturday 2026-01-17 · 16:30 Empower Field at Mile High, Denver US 🌧 Rain Spread 1.5 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

BUF
48.0%
DEN
52.0%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BUF offense: +0.127 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • DEN on 7 more days rest than BUF
  • DEN defense: -0.077 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • BUF defense: -0.076 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • QB edge to DEN: Bo Nix (DEN) +0.101 vs Josh Allen (BUF) +0.113 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

BUF 22
–
DEN 24
Projected margin: DEN by 2 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 20

BUF

Jordan Poyer S Out Hamstring
Tyrell Shavers WR Out Knee
Maxwell Hairston CB Out Ankle
Curtis Samuel WR Questionable Elbow
Ed Oliver DT Questionable Biceps
Ty Johnson RB Questionable Ankle
Damar Hamlin S Questionable Pectoral
Terrel Bernard LB Questionable Calf

DEN

Lucas Krull TE Out Foot
Drew Sanders LB Out Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 20 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BUF 30
–
DEN 33

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 17 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:33 FG DEN (7:33) 3-W.Lutz 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. BUF 0 – DEN 3
  • Q1 00:10 TD BUF (:10) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 16-M.Hardman for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 6 – DEN 3
  • Q2 09:39 TD DEN (9:39) 73-F.Crum reported in as eligible. 10-B.Nix pass short right to 73-F.Crum for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 7 – DEN 9
  • Q2 02:17 FG BUF (2:17) 15-M.Prater 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky. BUF 10 – DEN 10
  • Q2 00:29 TD DEN (:29) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep left to 17-L.Humphrey for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN [50-G.Rousseau]. BUF 10 – DEN 16
  • Q2 00:02 FG DEN (:02) 3-W.Lutz 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. BUF 10 – DEN 20
  • Q3 11:39 FG DEN (11:39) 3-W.Lutz 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. BUF 10 – DEN 23
  • Q3 06:55 TD BUF (6:55) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 0-K.Coleman for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 16 – DEN 23
  • Q4 13:29 TD BUF (13:29) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 86-D.Kincaid for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 23 – DEN 23
  • Q4 04:14 FG BUF (4:14) 15-M.Prater 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky. BUF 27 – DEN 23
  • Q4 01:01 TD DEN (1:01) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep left to 19-M.Mims for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN-19-M.Mims was injured during the play. BUF 27 – DEN 29
  • Q4 00:10 FG BUF (:10) 15-M.Prater 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky. BUF 30 – DEN 30
  • Q5 04:46 FG DEN (4:46) 3-W.Lutz 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. BUF 30 – DEN 33

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 1 at the 18
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 94%

    (9:07) 10-B.Nix up the middle to BUF 14 for 4 yards (96-D.Walker).

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 6 at the 10
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 97%

    (7:33) 3-W.Lutz 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 1 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 99%

    (1:33) (No Huddle) 17-J.Allen left guard to DEN 1 for 1 yard (92-D.Tillman).

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 10 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (14:49) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 43 yards to BUF 37, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 16-M.Hardman.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 9 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 96%

    (2:17) 15-M.Prater 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 8 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 95%

    (11:39) 3-W.Lutz 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 9 at the 40
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 58%

    (2:38) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 25 yards to BUF 15, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 10-K.Shakir.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 7 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (11:57) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 65 yards to end zone, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Touchback.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 8 at the 12 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 96%

    (4:14) 15-M.Prater 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 10 at the 32 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 77%

    (:10) 15-M.Prater 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.