4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 8 at the 15

Denver Broncos 20 – Buffalo Bills 10

What Actually Happened

(11:39) 3-W.Lutz 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.

The Three Options

GO +1.52 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.56 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 15, worth -0.36 EP
KICK +1.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25, worth -0.89 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model