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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 9 at the 40

Denver Broncos 23 – Buffalo Bills 17

What Actually Happened

(2:38) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 25 yards to BUF 15, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 10-K.Shakir.

The Three Options

GO -0.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.90 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 40, worth -1.95 EP
KICK -0.11 EP
  • 58% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model