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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 18

Denver Broncos 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(9:07) 10-B.Nix up the middle to BUF 14 for 4 yards (96-D.Walker).

The Three Options

GO +3.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +5.13 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 18, worth -0.30 EP
KICK +1.85 EP
  • 94% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 28, worth -0.91 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model