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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 7 at the 65

Denver Broncos 23 – Buffalo Bills 24

What Actually Happened

(11:57) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 65 yards to end zone, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.28 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.20 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 65, worth -3.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 23, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model