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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 2

Buffalo Bills 0 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(1:33) (No Huddle) 17-J.Allen left guard to DEN 1 for 1 yard (92-D.Tillman).

The Three Options

GO +4.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.36 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 2, worth +0.13 EP
KICK +1.32 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.35 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -0.94 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model