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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 4 at the 59

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(14:05) 42-E.Evans punts 49 yards to CHI 10, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 12-D.Duvernay to CHI 20 for 10 yards (24-E.Neal).

The Three Options

GO -0.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.86 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 59, worth -3.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 18, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP