4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
LA Away

Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
@
CHI Home

Chicago Bears

HC Ben Johnson
Sunday 2026-01-18 · 18:30 Soldier Field, Chicago US 🌨 Snow Spread -3.5 O/U 49.5

Win Probability

LA
58.0%
CHI
42.0%
🌨 Snow

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LA offense: +0.175 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • Matthew Stafford (LA): +0.253 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • CHI offense: +0.068 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • CHI defense: +0.054 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

LA 28
–
CHI 24
Projected margin: LA by 4 Projected total: 52

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 20

LA

Jimmy Garoppolo QB Questionable Back
Desjuan Johnson DE Questionable Illness

CHI

Nick McCloud CB Out Groin
Jalen Reeves-Maybin LB Questionable Back
Rome Odunze WR Questionable Foot

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 20 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LA 20
–
CHI 17

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:24 TD LA (6:24) 23-K.Williams right tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 6 – CHI 0
  • Q2 15:00 TD CHI (15:00) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short middle to 2-D.Moore for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 7 – CHI 6
  • Q2 01:15 FG CHI (1:15) 8-C.Santos 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. ** Injury Update: LA-1-E.Forbes has returned to the game. LA 7 – CHI 10
  • Q2 00:03 FG LA (:03) 92-H.Mevis 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-42-E.Evans. LA 10 – CHI 10
  • Q4 08:55 TD LA (8:55) (No Huddle) 23-K.Williams right end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 16 – CHI 10
  • Q4 00:27 TD CHI (:27) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short left to 85-C.Kmet for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN [8-J.Verse]. LA 17 – CHI 16
  • Q5 03:24 FG LA (3:24) 92-H.Mevis 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-42-E.Evans. LA 20 – CHI 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 2 at the 21
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 91%

    (13:02) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep middle intended for 84-C.Loveland INTERCEPTED by 14-C.Durant at LA 1. 14-C.Durant to LA 15 for 14 yards (2-D.Moore).

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 99%

    (15:00) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short middle to 2-D.Moore for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 4 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 53%

    (14:05) 42-E.Evans punts 49 yards to CHI 10, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 12-D.Duvernay to CHI 20 for 10 yards (24-E.Neal).

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 5 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (12:32) 19-T.Taylor punts 51 yards to LA 24, Center-46-S.Daly, out of bounds.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 11 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (9:01) 42-E.Evans punts 41 yards to CHI 18, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 12-D.Duvernay.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 1 at the 32
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 76%

    (4:30) 25-K.Monangai right guard to LA 32 for no gain (3-K.Curl).

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 4 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 81%

    (1:15) 8-C.Santos 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. ** Injury Update: LA-1-E.Forbes has returned to the game.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 10 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 96%

    (:03) 92-H.Mevis 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-42-E.Evans.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 4 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EP
    p(convert) 53%

    (12:08) 42-E.Evans punts 51 yards to CHI 4, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 6 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (7:40) 19-T.Taylor punts 44 yards to LA 24, Center-46-S.Daly, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 3 at the 69
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (5:42) 42-E.Evans punts 57 yards to CHI 12, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 12-D.Duvernay MUFFS catch, and recovers at CHI 8. 12-D.Duvernay to CHI 23 for 15 yards (24-E.Neal; 44-J.McQuaide).

  • Q3 LA 4th & 10 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 32%

    (3:49) 42-E.Evans punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Touchback.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 2 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (15:00) 19-T.Taylor punts 46 yards to LA 9, Center-46-S.Daly, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 1 at the 7
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 98%

    (9:24) 12-P.Nacua right end to CHI 5 for 2 yards (31-K.Byard).

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 2 at the 2 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 99%

    (3:06) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short middle to 10-L.Burden (48-O.Speights).

  • Q4 LA 4th & 7 at the 83 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (2:00) 42-E.Evans punts 33 yards to 50, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-24-E.Neal.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 4 at the 14 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.84 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 96%

    (:27) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short left to 85-C.Kmet for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN [8-J.Verse].