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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 11 at the 59

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(9:01) 42-E.Evans punts 41 yards to CHI 18, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 12-D.Duvernay.

The Three Options

GO -1.09 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.54 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 59, worth -3.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 18, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model