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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Chicago Bears
4th & 1 at the 32
Chicago Bears 7 – Los Angeles Rams 7
What Actually Happened
(4:30) 25-K.Monangai right guard to LA 32 for no gain (3-K.Curl).
The Three Options
GO
+2.25 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.80 EP
- 30% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 32, worth -1.28 EP
KICK
+0.92 EP
- 76% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
- 24% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 42, worth -1.83 EP
PUNT
-0.13 EP
- Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
