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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 4 at the 55

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Chicago Bears 10

What Actually Happened

(12:08) 42-E.Evans punts 51 yards to CHI 4, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.77 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 55, worth -3.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.91 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 16, worth -0.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EP