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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 3

Chicago Bears 0 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short middle to 2-D.Moore for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.03 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 3, worth +0.70 EP
KICK +2.04 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.27 EP
PUNT +0.45 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model