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Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
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Seattle Seahawks

HC Mike Macdonald
Sunday 2026-01-25 · 18:30 Lumen Field, Seattle US ☀️ Clear Spread 2.5 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

LA
42.8%
SEA
57.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LA offense: +0.161 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • SEA defense: -0.274 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • Matthew Stafford (LA): +0.230 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • SEA offense: +0.056 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

LA 24
–
SEA 26
Projected margin: SEA by 2 Projected total: 50

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 21

LA

Rob Havenstein T Out Ankle
Byron Young LB Questionable Knee

SEA

Chazz Surratt LB Out Ankle
Amari Kight T Doubtful Knee
Josh Jones T Questionable Knee
Robbie Ouzts FB Questionable Neck

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 21 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LA 27
–
SEA 31

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:03 TD SEA (10:03) 9-K.Walker right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 0 – SEA 6
  • Q1 08:19 FG LA (8:19) 92-H.Mevis 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-42-E.Evans. LA 3 – SEA 7
  • Q1 00:58 FG SEA (:58) 5-J.Myers 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. LA 3 – SEA 10
  • Q2 12:16 FG LA (12:16) 92-H.Mevis 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-42-E.Evans. LA 6 – SEA 10
  • Q2 02:00 TD LA (2:00) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 23-K.Williams for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 12 – SEA 10
  • Q2 00:25 TD SEA (:25) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN [8-J.Verse]. LA 13 – SEA 16
  • Q3 12:07 TD SEA (12:07) 14-S.Darnold pass deep middle to 19-J.Bobo for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN [91-K.Turner]. LA 13 – SEA 23
  • Q3 09:45 TD LA (9:45) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 17-D.Adams for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 19 – SEA 24
  • Q3 04:57 TD SEA (4:57) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 10-C.Kupp for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN [91-K.Turner]. LA 20 – SEA 30
  • Q3 02:13 TD LA (2:13) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 12-P.Nacua for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. LA 26 – SEA 31

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LA 4th & 3 at the 62
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (13:40) 42-E.Evans punts 43 yards to SEA 19, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 10 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 87%

    (8:19) 92-H.Mevis 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-42-E.Evans.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 9 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 98%

    (:58) 5-J.Myers 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 19 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 78%

    (12:16) 92-H.Mevis 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-42-E.Evans.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 8 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (1:41) 4-M.Dickson punts 45 yards to LA 18, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 19-X.Smith. PENALTY on SEA-41-C.Stoll, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 18.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 5 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (1:03) 42-E.Evans punts 41 yards to SEA 26, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 20 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (12:17) 4-M.Dickson punts 55 yards to LA 18, Center-41-C.Stoll. 19-X.Smith MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by SEA-83-D.Young at LA 17.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 10 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 50%

    (12:24) 4-M.Dickson punts 34 yards to LA 10, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 23-K.Williams.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 1 at the 26
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 87%

    (8:16) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford scrambles up the middle to SEA 23 for 3 yards (0-D.Lawrence).

  • Q4 LA 4th & 4 at the 6 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%

    (4:59) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short middle to 18-T.Ferguson (21-D.Witherspoon).

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 12 at the 45 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.85 EP
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 48%

    (:31) 4-M.Dickson punts 38 yards to LA 7, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 23-K.Williams. ** Injury Update: SEA-42-D.Thomas has returned to the game.