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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 12 at the 45

Seattle Seahawks 31 – Los Angeles Rams 27

What Actually Happened

(:31) 4-M.Dickson punts 38 yards to LA 7, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 23-K.Williams. ** Injury Update: SEA-42-D.Thomas has returned to the game.

The Three Options

GO -0.19 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +0.95 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 45, worth -0.71 EP
KICK +0.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.63 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 12, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.85 EP