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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 14

Denver Broncos 7 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(9:28) 8-J.Stidham pass incomplete short right to 12-R.Harvey (31-C.Woodson) [97-M.Williams].

The Three Options

GO +3.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.07 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 14, worth -0.85 EP
KICK +1.22 EP
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.34 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 24, worth -1.43 EP
PUNT -0.68 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model