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New England Patriots

14-3 HC Mike Vrabel
@
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Denver Broncos

14-3 HC Sean Payton
Sunday 2026-01-25 · 15:00 ET Empower Field at Mile High, Denver US 🌧 Rain Spread -3.5 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

NE
57.2%
DEN
42.8%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • NE offense: +0.154 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • NE defense: -0.144 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • QB edge to NE: Jarrett Stidham (DEN) -0.000 vs Drake Maye (NE) +0.225 EPA/dropback (DEN starting Jarrett Stidham in place of Bo Nix)
  • DEN offense: +0.043 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
  • DEN defense: -0.011 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • Played at altitude (3,000+ ft)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

NE 24 17–31
–
DEN 19 12–26
Projected margin: NE by 5 Projected total: 43

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 21

NE

Harold Landry III LB Out Knee
Terrell Jennings RB Out Concussion
Joshua Farmer DT Out Hamstring
Eric Gregory DT Out Knee
Mack Hollins WR Questionable Abdomen
Marte Mapu LB Questionable Hip

DEN

J.K. Dobbins RB Out Foot
Lucas Krull TE Out Foot
Drew Sanders LB Out Ankle
Bo Nix QB Out Ankle
Luke Wattenberg C Questionable Shoulder
JL Skinner S Questionable Quadricep
Alex Forsyth C Questionable Ankle
Troy Franklin WR Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 21 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NE 10
–
DEN 7

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 26 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:24 TD DEN (10:24) 8-J.Stidham pass short right to 14-C.Sutton for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 0 – DEN 6
  • Q2 02:14 TD NE (2:14) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye right guard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 6 – DEN 7
  • Q3 05:32 FG NE (5:32) 36-A.Borregales 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer. NE 10 – DEN 7

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 9 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (13:36) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 56 yards to NE 8, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 NE 4th & 4 at the 86
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (12:08) 17-B.Baringer punts 44 yards to DEN 42, Center-47-J.Ashby. 19-M.Mims to DEN 41 for -1 yards (41-B.Schooler).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 NE 4th & 9 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (6:46) 17-B.Baringer punts 33 yards to DEN 23, Center-47-J.Ashby, downed by NE-24-D.Pettus.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 DEN 4th & 9 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (2:28) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 NE 4th & 15 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (1:02) 17-B.Baringer punts 43 yards to DEN 42, Center-47-J.Ashby. 19-M.Mims to DEN 43 for 1 yard (41-B.Schooler).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 DEN 4th & 1 at the 14
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 95%

    (9:28) 8-J.Stidham pass incomplete short right to 12-R.Harvey (31-C.Woodson) [97-M.Williams].

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NE 4th & 3 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57%

    (5:57) 17-B.Baringer punts 45 yards to DEN 17, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 DEN 4th & 6 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 26%

    (1:42) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 41 yards to NE 10, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 25-M.Jones.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NE 4th & 2 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66%

    (:57) 17-B.Baringer punts 41 yards to DEN 41, Center-47-J.Ashby. 19-M.Mims to DEN 49 for 8 yards (15-M.Mapu; 47-J.Ashby).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 DEN 4th & 6 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 65%

    (:24) 3-W.Lutz 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NE 4th & 1 at the 8
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 98%

    (8:10) 95-K.Tonga and 97-M.Williams reported in as eligible. 10-D.Maye up the middle to DEN 7 for 1 yard (99-Z.Allen). Denver challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NE 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 98%

    (5:32) 36-A.Borregales 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 DEN 4th & 4 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (3:59) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 52 yards to NE 19, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 25-M.Jones to NE 21 for 2 yards (31-K.Abrams-Draine).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NE 4th & 7 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 82%

    (:15) 36-A.Borregales 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 DEN 4th & 7 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (14:18) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NE 4th & 11 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (11:37) 17-B.Baringer punts 40 yards to DEN 30, Center-47-J.Ashby, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 DEN 4th & 6 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 22%

    (8:28) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 45 yards to NE 8, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NE 4th & 11 at the 93
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (7:01) 17-B.Baringer punts 26 yards to NE 33, Center-47-J.Ashby, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 DEN 4th & 5 at the 28 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 82%

    (4:46) 3-W.Lutz 45 yard field goal is BLOCKED (93-L.Taylor), Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NE 4th & 9 at the 63 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (3:11) 17-B.Baringer punts 31 yards to DEN 32, Center-47-J.Ashby, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →